LIBYA TODAY – AT 9:02 A.M. ET:  The revolution in Libya is taking on the characteristics of a civil war, rather than a brief rebellion, which was the Egyptian model.  And the dictator is proving difficult to dislodge.  Western countries face painful decisions, with no guaranteed outcomes, if the fighting goes on in the oil-rich country.  From Fox:

REGA, Libya -- Mutinous army units in pickup trucks armed with machine-guns and rocket launchers deployed around the strategic oil installation at Brega Thursday, a day after the opposition foiled an attempt by loyalists of Muammar al-Qaddafi to retake the port in rebel-held east Libya.

Government warplanes launched a new airstrike on the town in the morning, according to witnesses. It was not clear what they targeted, but it was likely an airstrip that belongs to the huge oil complex on the Mediterranean coast. There were no reports of casualties.

"We are in a position to control the area and we are deploying our forces," a rebel army officer in Brega told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

And...

Opposition leaders are pleading for foreign powers to launch airstrikes to help them oust Qaddafi as the United States moves military forces closer to Libyan shores to put military muscle behind Washington's calls for Qaddafi to give up power immediately.

COMMENT:  The administration, speaking especially through Defense Secretary Bob Gates, is making it plain that it doesn't want to get dragged into another conflict.

We are stuck, literally, between the proverbial rock and the hard place.  If we intervene militarily, we can appear to be Western imperialists trying to shape a new Libya to our own liking.  Al Qaeda's propagandists could have a field day, and our side can still lose.

On the other hand, if we fail to act, and Qaddafi remains in power, we will come off as weak and unprincipled, unconcerned about the people of the Arab world as long as the oil flows. 

One problem the administration has is actually identifying who the opposition is, not only in Libya, but in much more important Egypt.  There are already some very disturbing signs that the Muslim Brotherhood is starting to assert itself in Egypt, demanding, for example, the resignation of clerics it does not support. 

There are disturbances in other Arab countries, like Bahrain, Jordan, and Yemen. There are also continued, but small, disturbances in Iran.  But – and I think this is fascinating – the governments of those countries have thus far not been toppled.  It is quite possible that, over the weeks ahead, we will wind up with exactly the same autocrats in power as we had a month ago, with only the governments of Tunisia and Egypt changing hands, and with uncertain results in those two countries.

Please recall that there was a revolt against Soviet rule in Hungary in 1956, and in Czechoslovakia in 1968, surrounded by much hoopla and talk of freedom, but with no change in the ruling structure.  Revolutions are not easy, especially when the government starts shooting back.

March 3, 2011